![]() ![]() True, Putin’s approval has declined significantly since then, and the Russian public appears to be wary of war in Ukraine. Putin’s approval ratings soared after Russia’s annexation of Crimea in 2014. Whereas the US and its allies will have a hard time convincing constituents that a war to defend Ukraine is worthwhile, Putin can capitalize on the fact that Russian nationalism has been rising steadily in recent years. These facts are well known to Putin, an authoritarian leader who is not constrained by domestic public opinion in the way that his Western counterparts are. And although Afghanistan is very different from Ukraine, the fact is that the American public has little appetite for another foreign military campaign.Įnjoy unlimited access to the ideas and opinions of the world’s leading thinkers, including long reads, book reviews, topical collections, short-form analysis and predictions, and exclusive interviews every new issue of the PS Quarterly magazine (print and digital) the complete PS archive and more. Before Western personnel had even left the country, it had already been retaken by the Taliban. Last year, it withdrew from Afghanistan after 20 years of failing to establish political order or a functioning national economy. ![]() The US has recently relearned some of the lessons from those earlier wars. All told, those two wars in Asia lasted 20 years and cost around $1.2 trillion, resulting in more than 90,000 US military deaths. It then fought an even costlier war to keep South Vietnam independent, and failed. During the Cold War, the US fought a costly war to preserve South Korean independence. Moreover, history has shown how difficult it is to secure the independence of states with large belligerent neighbors. Most NATO members, including the US, almost certainly do not have the same level of motivation as Putin does. Keeping Ukraine within the Kremlin’s sphere of influence is thus critical for his strategy of ensuring Russia’s national security and boosting its geopolitical standing. He worries that, since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Russia’s western buffer has been reduced to Belarus. Putin views today’s geopolitical landscape in much the same way. Nonetheless, over the past 200 years, Russia has managed – almost always through force and aggression – to use small neighboring countries as a buffer against Western European countries that might threaten it. Russia has few allies, whereas NATO comprises 30 of the world’s richest countries, many of which have modernized militaries. There is an asymmetry between the cost that Russia is willing to pay to control Ukraine and the cost that NATO countries are willing to pay to protect it from Russian suzerainty. But protecting Ukraine’s independence is not as straightforward as it seems. NATO, led by the United States, is refusing Putin’s demand on the grounds that all countries have a right to decide their own fates.
0 Comments
Leave a Reply. |
AuthorWrite something about yourself. No need to be fancy, just an overview. ArchivesCategories |